Application of “WHAT–IF” Analysis in Risk Assessment During Rescue Operations at Traffic Accidents

Abstract

Technical rescue in traffic accidents represents one of the most dynamic and high-risk interventions for emergency services. This study aimed to apply the WHAT–IF analysis to systematic risk assessment during these operations, with particular focus on hydraulic equipment. Through a structured expert assessment methodology that included the Brainstorming and Delphi methods, 10 key adverse event scenarios were identified. The identified scenarios covered risks related to vehicle instability, fire, electric shock in electric/hybrid electric vehicles, equipment failure, and coordination errors. These were evaluated using three-level scales for probability and consequences. The assessments were integrated into a 3×3 risk matrix, allowing categorization into low, medium, high, and critical risk levels. The results showed that by implementing targeted treatment measures — including the standardization of stabilization procedures, Lockout/Tagout procedures for electric vehicles, the appointment of a safety officer, and the use of thermal imaging equipment — initially high and critical risks can be significantly reduced. Statistical analysis using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test confirmed that this reduction was statistically significant (p < 0.01), with a large effect size (r = 0.59), demonstrating a shift of risks into an acceptable zone in accordance with the ALARP (As Low as Reasonably Practicable) principle. It is concluded that the WHAT–IF analysis provides a clear, operational, and adaptable framework for improving the safety of rescuers and casualties, offering directly applicable guidelines for procedural and technological interventions, as detailed in the attached tabular manuals.